How it works
Predictive advertising, explained.
Predictive advertising means the result is modeled before the money is spent. You get a written number first, then campaigns that are measured against it.
Three things a projection tells you before you spend.
Volume
How many outcomes your budget should produce: booked jobs, customers, appointments or attendees.
Cost per outcome
What each of those should cost, so you can compare it with what one is worth to you.
The ceiling
The point at which additional spend stops producing additional results.
The difference
Reporting looks backward. A projection looks forward.
The standard arrangement in advertising is that you pay first and find out later. A report arrives at the end of the month explaining what occurred. By then the money is gone.
Predictive advertising inverts that order. The agency states what will happen before the budget is committed, in writing, and you decide whether the number is worth funding. You can take it to your board, your partner, or your own judgment.
Because the number is written down, it can be checked. An agency that only reports backward can never be wrong, which is also why it is hard to hold to account.
How Black X builds a projection
01
We model before we spend
Your market, your history, and the psychographic segments that actually buy, not the ones that merely engage. Output is a number with a confidence band.
02
You decide, in writing
The projection goes to you before anything launches. If the number is not worth funding, you have lost nothing and we part on good terms.
03
The system corrects itself
Campaigns read their own performance and reallocate continuously, so you are not paying someone to notice a problem three weeks late.
Where it is applied
Service businesses
What a booked job should cost, for automotive, home services, retail and specialty trade.
Franchise & multi-location
Cost per customer by location, on one system corporate can offer every franchisee.
Events & destinations
Attendance and ticket revenue modeled before the marketing budget is committed.
Questions
Predictive advertising questions.
What is predictive advertising?
Predictive advertising is advertising that starts with a forecast. Before a budget is committed, the agency models what the spend will produce, including volume, cost per outcome and the point where more spend stops producing more results, and puts that number in writing. Results are then measured against it.
How is a predictive advertising projection built?
Black X Marketing models your market, your history and the psychographic segments that actually buy, not the ones that merely engage. The output is a number with a confidence band, delivered before anything launches.
How is predictive advertising different from performance marketing?
Performance marketing reports results after the money is spent. Predictive advertising commits to an expected result before the money is spent, so there is a written number to be right or wrong against.
What does a confidence band mean?
It is the range the result is expected to fall within. A projection is stated as a number with a range around it rather than a single guaranteed figure.
Is a projection a guarantee?
No. A projection is a written forecast the agency is measured against, not a guaranteed outcome. Its value is that it can be checked.
Who is predictive advertising for?
Black X Marketing applies it to three kinds of client: service businesses, franchise and multi-location systems, and events and destinations.
See the number for your own market.
Tell us your market and your current spend. We will model what it should be producing and send you the projection before you pay us anything.